The 2022 Lloyds Bank Healthcare Confidence Index shows:

• GPs remain the least confident of the primary healthcare professions after a downturn in their short-term sentiment
• Just a quarter (24%) expect to grow profits, while four in five (79%) expect financial pressures to increase 
• 69% of GPs say they never want to be a partner, citing risk and uncertainty

 
GPs’ confidence has fallen significantly in the last year and they remain the least confident of the healthcare professions surveyed in the latest Lloyds Bank Healthcare Confidence Index, launched today.
 
The survey of general practitioners saw GPs’ confidence decline to levels seen during the height of the pandemic, falling 14 points on last year to -35, on a scale of -100 to +100.
 
The decline was driven by GPs62%’ worsening short-term outlook, which fell from +3 in 2021 to -14 this year, as well as their long-term sentiment which dropped from -45 to -56.
 
The drop in confidence levels is reflected in GPs’ expectations for practice profits. The proportion anticipating profits to increase over the next year fell by more than a third (37%) when compared with 2021, while four in five (79%) expect financial pressures to increase over the next five years.
 
Key challenges for the year ahead include energy prices (84%), inflation (76%) and tax (46%).
 
Retirements and recruitment
 
The declining outlook is also impacting succession planning; more than half (56%) of practices will be seeking new full-time partners over the next five years, but 69% of respondents said they never want to be a partner because of the risk of personal loss (26%) and uncertainty over the future of general practice (21%).
 
A small majority (56%) said the New Partner Incentive – which is worth up to £23,000 – had a positive impact on attracting new partners, though this scheme is due to come to an end in March 2023.
 
These challenges help explain why just 12% of GPs expect NHS services to patients to improve over the next five years, against 62% who think they will get worse.
 
GPs’ journey to Net Zero
 
This year the Index has shone a spotlight on GPs’ sustainability strategies, which have remained remarkably resilient in the current environment.
 
More than nine in ten (93%) GPs say sustainability is important to their future plans, up from eight in ten (78%) last year. They are taking action including waste reduction (59%), cutting energy use (47%), creating more energy efficient buildings (34%) and using renewable energy (29%).
 
Martyn Kendrick, head of healthcare banking services, Lloyds Bank, said: “The results of this year’s Index show how healthcare providers are facing up to growing financial pressures from rising energy prices, interest rates and inflation, which are squeezing budgets like never before.
 
“There’s also some wariness about investing in practices, especially given how many are located in tired premises that will need investment to bring them up to standard, as well as the extra workload that comes with being a partner. But not all these worries are well-founded; buying into a practice can actually be a solid investment.
 
“We’re longstanding supporters of GP practices and will continue to provide them with the knowledge, products and guidance they need to continue delivering their essential services through these challenging times.”
 
Jenny Hurst, healthcare partner, BHP, said: “GPs feel a little like political footballs at the moment – hence their falling confidence – and I’m sure they’d appreciate a more open dialogue with those in power.
 
“The Lifetime Allowance on pension savings is prompting some longstanding and highly experienced GPs to reduce their hours or leave the profession altogether in order to avoid a big tax bill. The Government has promised to look at this policy again, which could help reduce the pressure on GPs.”
 
James Gransby, partner, RSM UK Tax and Accounting, said: “It's not surprising to see that GPs’ confidence has fallen significantly during 2022.That said, on the ground I’m seeing a really diverse range of outlooks when it comes to GPs’ prospects. But I think that the one thing that could turn the tide for GPs is a coherent long-term plan for the future of primary care.”
 
The Healthcare Confidence Index, a survey of GPs, dentists and pharmacists, has run annually since 2011 and seeks to give a detailed overview of the sector as it is today, as well as exploring the professions’ ambitions and expectations for the future.
 
To view the full report, visit www.lloydsbank.com/healthcare-index.