Responding to new analysis by the Health Foundation showing that the NHS elective waiting list in England will reach 8m by summer 2024, Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, said:

“This analysis all but confirms that the Prime Minister’s pledge to reduce the size of the waiting list is increasingly unlikely to be met. With the elective waiting list increasing by around 100,000 a month, NHS finances already hit to the tune of £1.4bn and nearly 1.2m people experiencing a cancelled operation as a result of industrial action, it’s in everyone’s interest to bring the strikes to an end. If not, we are facing a waiting list of over 8 million next year.

“While this analysis indicates that industrial action is not the main cause of lengthening waiting lists, it rightly points out that the strikes are not helping. NHS leaders tell us that dealing with industrial action is occupying a lot of their staff time when it comes to cancelling and then rebooking appointments – time that could be better spent treating patients.

“The strikes are also harming efforts to improve efficiency and productivity, as well as costing significant amounts of money that wasn’t planned for. Unless this money is reimbursed, then NHS organisations will face impossible choices on where to cut back.

“As the Health Foundation report rightly says, the root cause of the delays to treatment that patients are now experiencing is a decade of under-investment in the NHS. And we must also remember that the waiting list the Prime Minister has chosen to prioritise in his top five pledges doesn’t include those waiting in mental health and community care. Those waiting lists must not be overlooked and require urgent focus.

“The one bright spot in the analysis is that monthly treatments are growing at a faster rate than before the pandemic. However, this is countered by the fact that monthly referrals for treatment are now back to pre-pandemic levels, and growing at a faster rate. On the one hand, this is a good sign as it indicates that more patients are coming forward for treatment, but on the other it leaves the NHS struggling to meet demand as the number of referrals is outstripping the number of treatments.

“Finally, while we hope these threats don’t materialise, the worst-case scenario outlined in the report doesn’t take into account the possibility of a difficult winter, including a heavy flu season or a Covid outbreak, or a continuing deterioration of NHS trust finances as they seek to plug the costs of ongoing industrial action. If these risks do materialise then we are facing an even worse scenario.”